Does Traditional ICE Engine Oil Still Viable Market Amid Sturging EV Sales?

As new energy vehicle sales keep hitting record highs in 2026, many lubricant practitioners hold concerns: will traditional fuel vehicle engine oil lose market space and shrink rapidly? Based on H1 2026 industry data and downstream market changes, the answer is negative — the ICE engine oil market will maintain stable, long-term demand supported by multiple core factors, despite fast electrification progress.

First, the massive existing stock of fuel vehicles creates steady aftermarket replacement demand. Although pure electric cars take up a larger share of new vehicle sales year by year, the total number of gasoline and diesel vehicles running on roads remains enormous. Most private fuel cars have a service life of over 8 to 10 years, while commercial logistics fleets, construction machinery and two-wheelers rely heavily on internal combustion engines. Aged vehicles require frequent oil changes and high-performance protective additives, forming a stable aftermarket consumption base that cannot be replaced by EVs in the short term.

Second, hybrid vehicles become a critical buffer market for engine oil. HEVs and PHEVs still equip internal combustion engines that start and stop frequently under severe thermal load. These hybrid powertrains demand ultra-low-viscosity, low-SAPS engine oils with outstanding anti-oxidation and anti-wear performance, driving robust orders for advanced additive packages. The hybrid lubricant segment even achieves double-digit year-on-year growth in 2026, bringing new growth points for premium engine oil additives.

Third, commercial vehicles and overseas emerging markets offset volume losses from passenger EVs. Heavy-duty trucks, ships, engineering machinery and mining equipment still have no mature full-electrification solutions. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America maintain strong growth of fuel vehicle ownership, with low EV penetration, continuously boosting export demand for conventional engine oil and corresponding additives.

Fourth, stricter emission regulations push the engine oil market toward high-value upgrading. China National VI B standards force blenders to adopt low-ash, low-viscosity synthetic oils with high-performance additives such as ashless dispersants and anti-wear agents. The market growth logic shifts from volume expansion to value improvement, raising profit margins of compliant additive products.

Our company supplies complete additive solutions for traditional ICE, hybrid and commercial vehicle engine oils, covering low-SAPS formulas, sulfurized isobutylene extreme pressure additives and anti-oxidant packages. We will keep optimizing product portfolios to serve both conventional lubricant manufacturers and hybrid fluid producers, seizing dual opportunities from the stable ICE market and booming new energy lubricant track.